Amid online rumors and discussions about a potential war between Poland and the United States
, international relations experts and geopolitical analysts agree: there is no credible basis for such a scenario. Despite speculation fueled by conspiracy theories and inflammatory rhetoric on social media, bilateral relations between the two nations remain strategically aligned, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s growing influence in Eastern Europe.
Historical Context: A Strategic Partnership
Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1999, has long been one of the United States’ closest allies in Europe. The two countries collaborate closely on defense, with U.S. troops stationed on Polish soil as part of collective security agreements. Poland is also one of Europe’s largest investors in American military equipment, purchasing F-35 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, and air defense systems.
"Any narrative suggesting conflict between these nations ignores decades of military and diplomatic collaboration," says Dr. Anna Kowalska, a researcher at the Warsaw Center for European Studies. "Poland relies on NATO’s protection, with the U.S. as its primary guarantor."
Points of Friction: Exaggerations vs. Realities
While relations are strong, occasional disagreements exist. Recent debates over LGBTQ+ rights, judicial independence in Poland, and the conservative ruling party’s (PiS) stance on Ukraine have drawn criticism from some U.S. lawmakers. However, such disputes are resolved through diplomacy, not threats of war.
"War between NATO allies is virtually inconceivable," explains John Peterson, an analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "Article 5 of the treaty, which mandates collective defense, is both a legal and political firewall. A conflict between members would shatter the alliance’s credibility."
Hypothetical Scenarios: Expert Perspectives
In an interview with Foreign Policy, former U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice emphasized that "even during the Cold War, when Eastern Europe had ideologically opposed governments, the U.S. and its allies avoided direct confrontation." She argues that war would only be plausible in a scenario involving the collapse of global multilateral order—a prospect widely deemed unrealistic.
Meanwhile, Marek Szczygiel of the Polish Institute of International Relations notes that Poland is acutely aware of its geopolitical vulnerabilities. "Real threats, like Russia, keep Warsaw and Washington united. There’s no room for reckless militarism," he states.
This article was based on interviews with experts and analysis of official documents. Sources cited include NATO reports, government statements and academic studies.